after market update: actual S&P +23.6 Markets kept on going today, far exceeding the social mood signals' take on things, and in spite of a dreary payrolls report.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance. This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research. It is not intended to be trading advice.
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Overview: Collective mood indicates rising uncertainty and increased risk of violence, protests and terrorist activity. Mood signals for the day indicate a continued selloff in the markets is likely. The clear indication that the disaster pressure had been resolved is unfortunately missing. It is not clear at this time whether or not there is still more to come.
Overview: Collective mood indicates rising uncertainty and increased risk of violence, protests and terrorist activity. Mood signals for the day indicate a continued selloff in the markets is likely. The clear indication that the disaster pressure had been resolved is unfortunately missing. It is not clear at this time whether or not there is still more to come.
Near Term: The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but after briefly bouncing off support had been scraping along it near S&P 1740 (see Google trends chart below). It has recently broken down below that support indicating further downside in the markets is likely.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping. Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," yet may be pausing at long term support. The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: -5.8 from Google Hot Trends, -11.5 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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