Update, 1st Week of August Event, 2014

On 24 July, we announced a disaster or tragic event of high impact to the United States was near and most likely to occur between August 1-8, 2014.  Also, that more information would be available in the days ahead as to the type of event that was anticipated.

The shift in social mood points to a collective desire to shift *away* from global violence as people become concerned with new types of threats.  Some of these new types of concerns, such as disease and economic issues have already begun to surface as Ebola makes headlines and market volatility spikes.  Environmental tragedies and natural events that relate to water or fluid such as severe storms, flooding, a tsunami, or volcanic eruptions (lava) may also be a part of this cluster.

At this time, we can say the following about likely events of this period:
1) The bulk of the destructive components of these events should be international (non-U.S.) in origin.
2) There could be a significant economic component or impact to the U.S.
3) The event or series of events should dominate U.S. conversation and air-wave time for days if not weeks.

For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Stock Market Panic Ahead?

As we await more information about a tragic event that should strongly impact the U.S. any day now (signal indicates most likely timeframe August 1-8, see previous post), the stock market is indicating strong bias toward a sharp sell-off.  In addition, today's social mood is showing a shift toward "panic."  Something big is brewing.  The chart below shows how the stock market has been generally in the same spot for three weeks, while social mood has lead the way steadily down (mood most often leads the market's direction).

 

Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

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Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February).  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

 

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Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

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Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.
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Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled.  Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14.  Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure.  It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it.   In the next day or two we should know.

Next "U.S." Disaster could be the Sochi Olympics

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A few days ago, we were wondering if the Superbowl might be the next major U.S. tragedy.  However, as we mentioned in the post, it seemed more likely that it would be an event with an international component.  The Sochi Olympics has the international component and is related to sports.  This imminent disaster, however it will manifest, still appears to be quickly approaching.

To repeat what was said in the earlier post: the Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it.  We are now on day 4.

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While the event doesn't have to be related to sports, the Sochi Olympics as disaster would fit several of the key themes listed above for type SW.  Let us hope and pray that the athletes and spectators stay out of harms way.  We will know soon enough what this disaster curve has been trying to tell us.

Next U.S. tragedy: Is it the Superbowl?

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The Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it. 

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While sports is one of the listed probable types of events, and Superbowl Sunday is only two days away, that does not necessarily mean that the Superbowl will be subject to attack, yet it does merit a close watch.  It is likely that whatever occurs has an international component or leads to war or the brink of war.  We will have to see how this shapes up over the next few days.
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Update 1 Feb '14: Here's the volcano, but not the U.S. thing yet.
                             Wow!  Another one!
Update 5 Feb '14: Storm Nika-- "flood" or heavy precipitation of ice and snow with near record power outages.

U.S. Disaster Nears: Outlook 31 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -11.6  The market was moderately down, in line with social mood signals.  When the disaster signal peaks indicating a U.S. tragic event is imminent, we will announce that.  Hopefully, it has nothing to do with the upcoming Superbowl this weekend. 

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Overview:  Collective mood shows aggression, and perceptions of deterioration.  Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate decline in the markets is likely.  A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is a few days away (see 28 Jan. post).  The curve we have been waiting to top is showing signs of peaking, but has not yet turned down.  When it does, the anticipated event becomes imminent (within a day or two).

Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background.  It may be another few days to a few weeks to know all that this is pointing to.  The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but after briefly bouncing off support has been scraping along it (see Google trends chart below).  

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "caution," yet there is no definitive signal that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -7.3 from Google Hot Trends, -2.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice

Next U.S. Tragedy Days Away

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The United States is about to experience another major tragedy.  This one should be more impactful to the average American than the Arapahoe High School shooting was.  Depending on where the current upswing in the above chart peaks, this next event should be more impactful than the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and possibly near the subjective impact of the Boston Marathon event of last year.

 

Without getting into the details of the chart this time around, the event should occur within a day or two of the next peak in the above chart.  It may be a mass violence event, but could be some other type of tragedy that allows people to emotionally connect with what is happening in the news.

Rising Global Instability: Outlook 19 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.05 (-0.1%). With rising uncertainty, markets were little changed today.  Markets continue to be seriously overbought relative to social mood.  Today's tragic incident in London (Apollo Theatre ceiling collapses in London) indicates the disaster/tragedy configuration is still in play on a global scale.  We are no longer looking for a specifically U.S. disaster/tragedy.  The incidents at Arapahoe High School and Reno Hospital appear to have been sufficient to move out of the danger zone for now.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect instability and uncertainty.  Market signals are up, however, markets are highly overbought relative to social mood so anything can happen.  We had expected to remove the U.S. disaster/tragedy watch today, but will wait at least until tomorrow as the configuration is not clearly resolved.  (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (+0,1% to +0.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects global aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for protests and terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +4.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +1.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

More Info on the Next U.S. Tragedy

The latest information suggests the next big U.S. tragedy will be early this week.  One week ago, the latest information showed the next big U.S. tragedy was days away.  On the 10th, it appeared imminent.  Friday's shooting at Arapahoe High School could have been the next disaster, but it wasn't.  It was a tragedy, but did not resolve the pattern that has been developing in collective mood.  There is something else still likely to show up.

Below is the latest graph of social mood relative to U.S. news (an update to what was presented last week).  Storm Electra has been added to the chart. 

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Notice what has happened to the pattern.  This line had appeared to be peaking near December 10th as the ice storms were completing.  This would mean that a major U.S. tragic event was right around the corner.  The Arapahoe shooting happened immediately after this apparent peak, but this line then started to climb again.  The added segment over this past week, with Storm Electra added, shows a peaking had not yet occurred... until now.  So, again, as was said in the original post on this event, if the pre-disaster pattern that can be clearly seen with the Boston Marathon event, and the recent Navy Yard shooting, continues to hold true, then America is only days away from its next big tragedy. 

Big Day? - Outlook 13 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -0.2 (-0.01%); Markets were nearly unchanged all day.  The big divergence between social mood and markets show that a climax is near.  We will have to wait until early next week to see how social mood and markets resolve this divergence.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and rising emotions.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  Markets could be sharply down today.  There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for another day or two (see Next American Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to sharply down (0% to -0.8%).  The social mood signal is sharply down, and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged.  A climax may be near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising emotions.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global risk of violence, protests, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation; there are rising economic concerns in the background.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -14.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 11 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -20.4 (-1.3%); Markets were down hard today as investors find it more likely that the FOMC will begin tapering Quantitative Easing.  The sharp downturn is in line with the near term mood outlook as well as the near term market outlook (below).  However, with markets oversold versus the daily signal, will they at least try to bounce overnight or tomorrow?

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  Markets may be mixed and confused as the question over long term direction is pondered.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to slightly down (0% to -0.2%).  The social mood signal is slightly down, and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged.  Watch for either a confused, mixed market or a possible abrupt shift. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention..  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global risk of violence, protests, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation; there are rising economic concerns in the background.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, appears very close to beginning.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Imminent U.S. Disaster: Outlook 10 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -5.75 (-0.3%); Markets were slightly down in choppy trading today.  Is today's slight dip a pause before the next big rally or the beginning of a sharp sell-off?  Watch for tomorrow's outlook to be posted around 12am ET.

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Overview: The final pre-requisite for the Next American Tragedy, according to research on collective mood patterns immediately preceding major U.S. tragic events since July 2012, has occurred.  The line in the bottom chart referred to in that post has just peaked, meaning the next major event is within a week of occurring, most likely much sooner.  The social mood pattern for today reflects desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  Markets may be mixed and confused, or make a start in one direction with an abrupt shift to the other.

Today's Market Outlook is mixed (-0.4% to +0.6%).  The social mood signal is down, and the signal from themes in the news is up.  Watch for either a confused, mixed market or a possible abrupt shift. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention..  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of geopolitical escalation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, appears very close to beginning.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -7.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +11.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

The Next American Tragedy... A Few Days Away?

America's next big tragedy may be only a few days away.  This has been detected by observing changes in social mood, and in the divergence between themes in the news and how people collectively are feeling.  For more details on how this is detected, see Disasters: Society's Shadow.  For more details on where America is now, and this particular alert, keep reading.

The chart below is one of the ways we watch the changes in social mood relative to the news.  A pattern emerged prior to every major tragic U.S. event since July 2012.  You will see one of the black dots, labeled Karma Point, followed by a red dot, labeled Tragic Event or Disaster.   The exception to this is that immediately following the very impactful Boston Marathon event and out through September of this year, there was a disruption in the pattern.

If the previous pattern has returned, as appears from the Navy Yard shooting in September, then America is days away from its next big tragedy.  We will be able to discover within a few days, if this is true, or if there is some unidentified new pattern (or no pattern) in play.  Another interesting feature that has been noticed in the last few disaster clusters is a possible relationship between stormy weather and the immediately following tragic events. 

In April 2013, immediately preceding the Boston Marathon event, was a disruptive and damaging storm, and this line on the graph peaked.

In September 2013, immediately preceding the Navy Yard Shooting, there was a major flooding event in Western Colorado.

Now, in December 2013, after the prerequisite black dot on the graph (Karma Point), there are disruptive and damaging ice storms.  The big question is, does this line now peak, with a major U.S. tragedy immediately afterwards?  We will know in a few days.