Next U.S. tragedy: Is it the Superbowl?

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The Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it. 

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While sports is one of the listed probable types of events, and Superbowl Sunday is only two days away, that does not necessarily mean that the Superbowl will be subject to attack, yet it does merit a close watch.  It is likely that whatever occurs has an international component or leads to war or the brink of war.  We will have to see how this shapes up over the next few days.
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Update 1 Feb '14: Here's the volcano, but not the U.S. thing yet.
                             Wow!  Another one!
Update 5 Feb '14: Storm Nika-- "flood" or heavy precipitation of ice and snow with near record power outages.

Military Action Imminent? - Special Update

update 28 Aug '13 - U.S. says, "We're past the point of no return" and airstrikes should be expected soon.  However, President Obama says, "No decision yet on Syria"

update 29 Aug '13 - US willing to act alone on Syria attack

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Changes in collective mood this evening have been observed consistent with executive decisions and military action.  Although the U.S. has communicated that it would strike Syria "as soon as Thursday," a spike has just been observed in collective mood factors that correspond with executive decisions, action (or violence), government, and a polarized "good guy" vs. "bad guy" outlook.

Social mood and news stories were being reviewed in hopes of finding a change for the better in the volatile situation around Syria.  The observed spike, we believe, corresponds with an executive decision to commit to a course of action.  While it is only an educated guess that this would correspond with a go ahead for a strike on Syria, there is a definite change in the pattern.

Alternate analysis shows a surge in news coverage of "mass violence" is likely to begin somewhere between August 30 - September 6.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

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