Global Agression, Market Correction

This week looks notably bumpy, and worthy of a special public post.  As U.S. society is a part of the global system, U.S. social mood is a subset of the global mood pattern.  There is an abrupt shift (see chart below) in the U.S. pattern showing up sometime tomorrow (Tuesday).  Slight optimism becomes passion and "mild panic" (circled in the chart).  Then by Wednesday there is a sharp deflation of spirit, as the Expansion quality quickly drops below zero, and everyone holds their breath in a tension that lasts through Thursday.  The abruptness indicates that this may show up as something quite intense.  The smallness of it reflected in the U.S. mood, may indicate that the larger effect is happening somewhere else.

In addition to this abrupt shift in mood, the MarketMood weekly model is showing a brief, but possibly sharp, market correction, of up to 2% this week.  Also, the weekly social mood (not shown) shows an aggressive configuration that often goes with geopolitical escalation.  So, hang on, there may be some turbulence.

 

World in Crisis, Part II

In the previous post, we summed up the latest on this complex global crisis pattern that began in late February.  The Ukraine crisis kicked it off, then the Malaysian jet disappearance made headlines for weeks.  The Korean ferry sunk, killing hundreds.  In the U.S. there were late winter storms, killer tornadoes, and a barrage of news stories of people "losing it" and shooting people.

It was discussed that with all of the angst and distress, globally, and within the U.S. that these events appeared to be of the type that signal the main event yet to come-- precursor events.  We expected the "disaster signal" (see 1st chart below) to stay above the line drawn near the bottom right of the chart and to at some point turn up.  Through all these weeks, this signal line has been churning away near that baseline, neither clearly going up toward a new set up, nor falling down in release.  It has been a difficult time of transition for many, yet the big impact for the U.S. has not yet appeared.

(click to enlarge)

 



While there is not yet a clear indication that the "grand finale" is imminent, there is a clue from social mood and the stock market that it is becoming quite close, likely within a few weeks away.  The chart below shows expected stock market movement derived from social mood (Google Hot Trends) versus actual stock market movement.  The two lines on this chart are usually pretty much in sink.  What this is telling us is two things: 1) The market trend is up, and in line to continue to new highs; and 2) The market is not able to go much higher than it currently is without first making a sharp drop down to at least the 1700-1750 area (the social mood signal dropped there in March, but the market didn't follow along-- it can't get away with that indefinitely).  In other words, an 8 to 10 percent correction is required for the market to continue much higher than where it is right now (S&P 1884).  If by chance, markets continue to eek out another 2 percent (1922-ish), the drop will need to be that much greater (10 to 12 percent).

(click to enlarge)

 

According to Robert Prechter's research in Socionomics, the big events tend to come near market bottoms.  Tomorrow's (Tuesday's) daily mood signal is showing a dip.  Is this the beginning of the drop toward the 1700s?  Will tomorrow be the next step closer to this grand finale still a few weeks away (before the market returns to an uptrend)?  If not, we will keep watching for the next indicator.

 

The Next Crisis Wave Approaching?

(click to enlarge)

Back on 24 February, we posted our observation that globally, the risk for violence and war was on the rise.  It seemed somewhat preposterous, as the news was all about diplomacy and cooperation (Iran negotiations, Syria destroying weapons, etc.).  Yet, that is what the patterns in social mood were displaying.

On 28 February, we posted World in Crisis, U.S. government and people not immune.  Hours later, the Ukraine crisis was in the news.  There were indications in our data of an approaching major disaster in scale, but little to no U.S. casualties were projected as likely accompanying this.  For that reason, we called it a crisis, not a disaster.  Also, from the social mood pattern, we determined the type of crisis projected is type NE.  From the post: "The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion."

By 5 March, we noticed that the charts were showing that this crisis had still not had a substantial U.S. impact, and did not get the telltale "disaster pressure" relief indicated by orange lines on the chart above.  We posted the date information of 6-13 March as the likely time-frame for this.  During the period of 7-14 March, markets were down in what may be the initial warnings of a much larger decline.  The relief of "disaster pressure" has shown up in the charts, yet the crisis is not over, nor has it yet had a substantial U.S. impact.  During the time period under watch, background disaster-type events were showing up, yet they were not of major U.S. impact: a Malaysian airliner disappeared over the ocean, a U.S. building exploded from a gas leak, several people were killed when someone crashed their car into a stage, and earthquakes in Northern and Southern California not causing much damage, but causing concern and making headlines nevertheless.  The scale of all of these events appear to be "disaster precursors."  They show up near major disasters or crises, but aren't the main event.  For this reason, we have colored the area of 7-14 March yellow on the chart.

If there are much larger U.S. impacts still developing in this very complex pattern, we would expect the line on the chart to turn up over the next few days, and to remain above the horizontal black line at the right side of the chart.  Things would tend to get really bad as the curve reached its top again, likely in another week or two.  Stay tuned.

War, not diplomacy: Outlook 7 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates a trend toward war and away from diplomacy.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely before 13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +3.7 from Google Hot Trends, -0.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

U.S. Panic as soon as tomorrow: Outlook 5 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of panic.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely between 6-13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +0.6 from Google Hot Trends, +3.6 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 4 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk aversion.  There is an extreme risk of a major natural disaster outside the U.S.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -5.6 from Google Hot Trends, -3.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Escalating Violence and Volatility: Outlook 3 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and geopolitical escalation.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  It may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sharp sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -19.7 from Google Hot Trends, -17.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
- - -

This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

(click to enlarge)

 

The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

(click to enlarge)

 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

Global Violence and War: Outlook 24 February '14

 

Overview:  The global risk of violence, geopolitical escalation and/or new war talk is rising.  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence globally and a willingness to take action toward a goal.  Mood signals for the day are strongly directional.  A strong sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: While markets have been rallying recently, social mood signals have continued to hover in a tight range (see Google trends chart below).  Mood signals are now breaking down below support indicating a sharp drop is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -29.6 from Google Hot Trends, -11.0 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February).  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

 

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

(click to enlarge)

Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.
- - -
Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled.  Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14.  Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure.  It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it.   In the next day or two we should know.

Outlook 13 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +10.6  Markets are seriously overbought, and a U.S. disaster is preparing to hit?  Will the rally continue much longer?

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a desperate fight to hold onto optimism.  Mood signals for the day indicate a light rally in the markets is possible.  However, markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since we learned that the last big ice storm (Nika) was not enough to dissipate the disaster pressure showing up in collective mood.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this zone, or is there more?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals are still hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal should break out in the next few days to give us a heads up on trend for the near term. 

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: +7.0 from Google Hot Trends, +0.2 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 11 Feb '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates increasing risk of violence, protests and terrorist activity.  Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate selloff in the markets is likely.  Yesterday's information confirmed suspicions that a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event is within a week to ten days away. The big ice storm known as Nika along with power outages and state disaster declarations last week was not enough to dissipate the disaster pressure.  More details will be presented in a few days of likely event type and timing.

Near Term: The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, and bounced at support near S&P 1740 (see Google trends chart below).  It has recently broken down below that support indicating further downside in the markets is likely. 

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -5.1 from Google Hot Trends, -3.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Violence and Volatility: Outlook 10 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +2.8  So far, markets have been ignoring the turndown in social mood.  Will it continue much longer?

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates increasing risk of violence, protests and terrorist activity.  Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate to sharp selloff in the markets is likely.  Today's information confirmed suspicions that a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event is within a week to ten days away. The big ice storm known as Nika along with power outages and state disaster declarations last week was not enough to dissipate the disaster pressure.  More details will be presented in a few days of likely event type and timing.

Near Term: The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, and bounced at support near S&P 1740 (see Google trends chart below).  It has recently broken down below that support indicating further downside in the markets is likely. 

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -14.3 from Google Hot Trends, -14.2 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Next "U.S." Disaster could be the Sochi Olympics

(click to enlarge)

A few days ago, we were wondering if the Superbowl might be the next major U.S. tragedy.  However, as we mentioned in the post, it seemed more likely that it would be an event with an international component.  The Sochi Olympics has the international component and is related to sports.  This imminent disaster, however it will manifest, still appears to be quickly approaching.

To repeat what was said in the earlier post: the Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it.  We are now on day 4.

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While the event doesn't have to be related to sports, the Sochi Olympics as disaster would fit several of the key themes listed above for type SW.  Let us hope and pray that the athletes and spectators stay out of harms way.  We will know soon enough what this disaster curve has been trying to tell us.

Next U.S. tragedy: Is it the Superbowl?

(click to enlarge)

The Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it. 

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While sports is one of the listed probable types of events, and Superbowl Sunday is only two days away, that does not necessarily mean that the Superbowl will be subject to attack, yet it does merit a close watch.  It is likely that whatever occurs has an international component or leads to war or the brink of war.  We will have to see how this shapes up over the next few days.
- - -
Update 1 Feb '14: Here's the volcano, but not the U.S. thing yet.
                             Wow!  Another one!
Update 5 Feb '14: Storm Nika-- "flood" or heavy precipitation of ice and snow with near record power outages.

Outlook 26 Aug '13: Mood Up in spite of Syria; Market Positive/Mixed

Today's market outlook is positive/mixed.  The social mood signal is strongly positive coming into the Monday open.  The news signal goes from slightly positive over the weekend to negative for Monday.

Today’s social mood signal is +9.1 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +20.8).  Social mood has been steadily pushing upward since mid-week last week, and markets have been following.  There is no sign of any change in the social mood at this time.

after market update: actual S&P -6.7
 

Today’s news signal is -5.7 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +2.5).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with optimism, aggression, and over-exuberance.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are sports, heroics, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of action, fires, and volcanoes.  The social mood pattern tends to go with growth and positive markets, the mood pattern taken from the news tends to go with destructive events and deteriorating socio-economic conditions.

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:

Syria chemical weapons attack: Kerry accuses Assad of 'a moral obscenity'

San Francisco Girds for Possible Threat to Water From Wildfire

Obama awards soldier Medal of Honor for 2009 heroics

Debt ceiling approaching: Will US hit debt ceiling in mid-October?

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down, although it is currently in a short term rebound.  The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.