Today's market outlook is positive/mixed. The social mood signal is strongly positive coming into the Monday open. The news signal goes from slightly positive over the weekend to negative for Monday.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with optimism, aggression, and over-exuberance. Common news events associated with the current pattern are sports, heroics, and geopolitical escalation. Also, events that portray a theme of action, fires, and volcanoes. The social mood pattern tends to go with growth and positive markets, the mood pattern taken from the news tends to go with destructive events and deteriorating socio-economic conditions.
Today’s social mood signal is +9.1 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +20.8). Social mood has been steadily pushing upward since mid-week last week, and markets have been following. There is no sign of any change in the social mood at this time.
after market update: actual S&P -6.7
after market update: actual S&P -6.7
Today’s news signal is -5.7 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +2.5). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down, although it is currently in a short term rebound. The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
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