Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with uncertainty, surprises, and confusion. Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, geopolitical escalation, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys). Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, instability, and the unexpected.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
Today's market outlook is Little Changed or Turning Down. Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly positive. However, with the mood signifying uncertainty and the unexpected, any news or rumor could tip the balance at any time.
after market update: actual S&P -3.2.
Today’s social mood signal is +2.5 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. However, bulls should be cautious as the social mood signal is near resistance, meaning not likely to get much higher in the near term.
Today’s news signal is +3.3 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. The news signal is slightly up, but not enough to be significant.
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