Today's market outlook is down/mixed. The social mood signal has dropped from strong positive over the weekend to slightly positive. The news signal has gone from slightly positive over the weekend to negative on Monday, continuing to be negative today.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and instability. Common news events associated with the current pattern are violence and geopolitical escalation. Also, events that portray a theme of activity, heat and fires. The social mood pattern tends to go with choppy markets, the mood pattern taken from the news tends to go with uncertainty and volatility.
Today’s social mood signal is +4.2 S&P points (with a negative momentum headwind). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Social mood had been steadily pushing upward since mid-week last week, and markets had been following. However, this upward climb has slowed, indicating a possible trend change in progress.
after market update: actual S&P -26.3
after market update: actual S&P -26.3
Today’s news signal is -4.7 S&P points (with a positive momentum headwind). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. The news signal appears to be extending in its downward turn.
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
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