Today's market outlook is negative. Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative. The news signal is indicating that an event perceived as either "very good" or "very bad" is near.
Today’s social mood signal is -9.2 S&P points, although mood momentum is positive. Social mood has broken down below support. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
after market update: actual S&P +14.2
theme of confusion in market: Nasdaq market paralyzed by 3-hour shutdown
after market update: actual S&P +14.2
theme of confusion in market: Nasdaq market paralyzed by 3-hour shutdown
Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As the news signal remains flat, and the market continues to drop, tension builds. A likely scenario is an upcoming news event that is perceived as either "really good," or "really bad."
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition. Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation. Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes (confusion theme apparent):
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
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