Showing posts with label trend. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trend. Show all posts

Monday, June 8, 2015

U.S. Market and Mood (June 14-20, 2015)


The week begins with an effort to put on a positive, "yes we can" attitude.  There may be some lingering, ongoing economic concerns and domestic issues, but the sense is that they can be addressed and turned around.  Competing with this resolve to look at the bright side, is a background of destabilizing factors, some of which comes from outside the U.S.  People begin to get agitated and anxious as the week goes on.  Midweek could even see a "mild panic" or moment of passion (strong emotions), as a general sense of increasing vulnerability begins to take hold  By week's end, risk aversion is becoming more pronounced, and markets are getting more decidedly bearish.  People have fixed ideas and opinions of "the facts," and are more willing to talk about them.  Protests and demonstrations are on the increase.

Analysis of U.S.-China relations shows China posturing in a more aggressive tone near June 18.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Likely response to FOMC: volatility and confusion-- Outlook 18 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P +20.7 (+1.2%); FOMC announcement response was volatility and confusion, as they did what no one expected-- no tapering at all right now.  The divergence between markets and social mood is not sustainable.  Are people about to get really happy or are the markets about to drop sharply?  The next few days could give us the answer.

Overview:  Today is the much anticipated FOMC meeting that is supposed to begin tapering of quantitative easing.  There are clues from social mood analysis as to what the likely response is today.  Collective mood appears to have turned down; the markets should be close behind. Yet, in the early stages of a trend change there is often confusion and hesitation as forces pull in both directions, and people try to make sense of the changes they are perceiving.  Today's stock market could be volatile and confused.  Estimated gains / losses for today are nearly unchanged to down 1/3%.

Today's Market Outlook is Mixed to Down.  The social mood signal is slightly negative as of the time of this posting, and the news signal is slightly positive. 
 
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with "the closing of a chapter." Common news themes associated with the current pattern are confusion and uncertainty.  The combined pattern at times accompanies volatility, instability, and geopolitical or economic uncertainty.  
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend appears to be turning down; the bounce over the last month may be complete.   
 
Today’s social mood signal is -5.7 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +5.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Trend Change in News and Markets, Could be Today or Tomorrow: 10 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +12.28 (0.73%)! 
- - -
 
Overview: Today's mood and news signal show a sense of continued positive developments.  However, signal momentum indicates a trend change is likely either today or tomorrow.  Markets could rally up to 0.7% today, but it is uncertain whether they will hold their gains through day's end.
 
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action and self-sacrifice for group goals. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to increased terrorist activity, violent protests, fires or events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and high winds.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend may be turning up.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but with increased risk of mid-session reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  However, both social mood and news signal momentum indicate a high risk of trend reversal today or tomorrow.

Today’s social mood signal is +12.3 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but momentum indicates a high chance of trend change today or tomorrow.
  
 
 
Today’s news signal is +13.9 S&P points.   News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up, but news signal momentum indicates a high risk of trend reversal today or tomorrow.  Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.
 



Thursday, August 22, 2013

Aug 22, 2013 Outlook: Mood Confused, Market Down

Today's market outlook is negative.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative.  The news signal is indicating that an event perceived as either "very good" or "very bad" is near.

Today’s social mood signal is -9.2 S&P points, although mood momentum is positive.  Social mood has broken down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P +14.2
 theme of confusion in market: Nasdaq market paralyzed by 3-hour shutdown



 

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As the news signal remains flat, and the market continues to drop, tension builds.  A likely scenario is an upcoming news event that is perceived as either "really good," or "really bad."
 



Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes (confusion theme apparent):
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
 

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Aug 21, 2013 Outlook: Mood Violent, Market Down

Today's market outlook is negative.
The social mood signal is strongly negative, yet the news signal is neutral to positive.  The social mood pattern is in transition.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -11.9 S&P points.  Social mood appears to be breaking down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P -9.6, with violent moves today (down 13, up 17, then down 14)!
 



Today’s news signal is +0.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
 


Near term outlook:
The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions. 
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
 
 
Longer term outlook:
The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is over 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

 

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Aug 20, 2013 Outlook: Mood Active, Market Down / Mixed

Today's market outlook is negative, but in transition.
Both social mood and the news signals indicate a downward day is most likely.  However, the social mood pattern is in transition; a short term bottom may be near.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -6.1 S&P points.  Social mood appears to be breaking down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P +6.3, market mixed with DOW ending -7.8
 


Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points; news momentum indicates a short term bottom may be near.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As we’re currently in an inverted news cycle, today’s news may be perceived as slightly positive (yet bad for markets).

 
Near term outlook:
The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions. 
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:


Longer term outlook:
The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is over 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.