Today's market outlook is positive. Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly positive. Yet, the news signal is indicating that an event perceived as either "very good" or "very bad" is near.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, over-exuberance, and disagreements. Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation. Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.
Today’s social mood signal is +3.3 S&P points. However, social mood has broken down below support over the last few days, and has not significantly turned up. Bulls should be cautious as markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
after market update: actual S&P +6.5
after market update: actual S&P +6.5
Today’s news signal is +1.2 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As the news signal remains flat, and the market continues to drop, tension builds. A likely scenario is an upcoming news event that is perceived as either "really good," or "really bad."
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
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