Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, uncertainty, and instability. Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, geopolitical escalation, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys). Also, events that portray a theme of action, fires, and explosions.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 8% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
Today's market outlook is down. The news signal is more negative than the previous two days. A climax could be near. The social mood signal is slightly positive, but has a negative momentum. Over the past few days, markets have primarily been following the news signal.
after market update: actual S&P +4.5. However, immediately after market close, there was a large spike in VIX futures (i.e. the fear index).
Today's market outlook is down. The news signal is more negative than the previous two days. A climax could be near. The social mood signal is slightly positive, but has a negative momentum. Over the past few days, markets have primarily been following the news signal.
after market update: actual S&P +4.5. However, immediately after market close, there was a large spike in VIX futures (i.e. the fear index).
Today’s social mood signal is +3.9 S&P points (with a negative momentum headwind). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. However, over the last few days, the news (and the news signal) has been the dominant market influence.
Today’s news signal is -10.0 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. The news signal is accelerating in its downward turn, but has yet to catch up with the markets.
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