I've been discussing "Presidential Technical Analysis" over the past few weeks, and we've been combining a social mood derived Campaign Momentum Indicator and an adaptation of Elliott Wave Analysis. I've been doing a weekly update on this on Sundays, but this just can't wait!
As of the last post, we were wondering whether Trump was experiencing a corrective increase in momentum (as informed by social mood data), or whether his new uptrend would be impulsive and give him an almost guaranteed victory. It looks pretty clear at this point, that this uptrend is corrective, and will not yield a default victory crown.
However, the surprising new development is what is going on with the Clinton campaign trajectory (see chart below). We expected her to have a tough week or two with a sharp "c wave" drop coming up for her. Yet, the rebound from that sharp drop is only three waves so far. A critical moment is just ahead! Either she will get one more upward move soon, giving her five waves up and a new surge in momentum, or her entire campaign is about to "crash" in what would be a devastating not yet completed c wave down that could last well into October. It wouldn't be impossible, but it would be nearly so, to recover from such a devastating blow in time for a win in November.
Stay tuned!
As of the last post, we were wondering whether Trump was experiencing a corrective increase in momentum (as informed by social mood data), or whether his new uptrend would be impulsive and give him an almost guaranteed victory. It looks pretty clear at this point, that this uptrend is corrective, and will not yield a default victory crown.
However, the surprising new development is what is going on with the Clinton campaign trajectory (see chart below). We expected her to have a tough week or two with a sharp "c wave" drop coming up for her. Yet, the rebound from that sharp drop is only three waves so far. A critical moment is just ahead! Either she will get one more upward move soon, giving her five waves up and a new surge in momentum, or her entire campaign is about to "crash" in what would be a devastating not yet completed c wave down that could last well into October. It wouldn't be impossible, but it would be nearly so, to recover from such a devastating blow in time for a win in November.
Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment