after market update: actual S&P +8.6 (+0.48%); Markets continue to follow the mood signal, yet the mood themes of avoidance and denial make the sustainability of this rally doubtful. Tomorrow may hold the key as both the mood and new signals are at key resistance. Should they go any higher, the rally will have news collective mood support, and may continue for some time.
Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.1% to +0.9%); both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive. However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality. The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses. Based on this and current mood signals, markets should again try really hard to continue up. Social mood signals have made a new high, but are in the area of a possible double top. By tomorrow at the latest (i.e. Friday), we should know if we are about to enter a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood, or are about to smack right into a wall.
Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality. The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses. Based on this and current mood signals, markets should again try really hard to continue up. Social mood signals have made a new high, but are in the area of a possible double top. By tomorrow at the latest (i.e. Friday), we should know if we are about to enter a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood, or are about to smack right into a wall.
Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.1% to +0.9%); both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive. However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
(click to enlarge)
Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality. The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses. The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of uncertainty, and a good chance of an unexpected turn of events.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has made a new high today, passing 1800. Is this a double top or is it signaling a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood that is about to unfold? By tomorrow we should have a good idea.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +14.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting. On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +2.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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