A-O-K Today or Violent Moves?: Outlook 1 Nov '13

Breaking News update:  There was definitely a go-ahead for violent action as shooting broke out at LAX  Let's hope that was it as far as the tragic event that had appeared to be coming up.  By Monday we should know if this was it, or if there was more. 
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57610433/report-shots-fired-at-los-angeles-airport/

after market update: actual S&P +5.2 (+0.3%); Markets started down and climbed with a struggle, finishing in line with social mood.

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Overview:

Social mood is signaling a slight up today.  That either can signal improving conditions, or a go-ahead for a violent action.  We should know which no later than this weekend.  Social mood reflects aggression and "righteous agendas."  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster; also, that government intervention may be possible.  Often as the mood begins to turn up in signal, a climax move begins in markets, and people who haven't acted on destructive urges make their move.  What will it be this time?

Today's Market Outlook is up, mixed (+0.1% to +0.3%);  While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly up.  However, because of the mood themes, be prepared for an abrupt shift during the trading day.

 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and "righteous agendas."  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster, and often accompanied with government intervention of some type.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.  An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a likely occurrence within the next few days.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has turned down from the resistance area (see this post for more info).  Markets are turning down.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +0.8 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.