after market update: actual S&P -5.1 (-0.29%); Markets tried to get back to positive territory after an initial sharp decline. Only the NASDAQ made it. It's not looking good for the bulls.
Today's Market Outlook is choppy, and up (0.2% to +0.8%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply up.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
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Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate positive today, and has gone just about as high as it can go without giving a bullish signal of new market highs and unfolding prosperity ahead. However, social mood reflects a very tired try at aggressiveness and "animal spirits." The themes in the news reflect rising uncertainty and instability. Mood signal momentum is indicating that a trend change is near.
Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate positive today, and has gone just about as high as it can go without giving a bullish signal of new market highs and unfolding prosperity ahead. However, social mood reflects a very tired try at aggressiveness and "animal spirits." The themes in the news reflect rising uncertainty and instability. Mood signal momentum is indicating that a trend change is near.
Today's Market Outlook is choppy, and up (0.2% to +0.8%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply up.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate, last gasp aggressiveness. The mood themes found in the news are associated with rising uncertainty and instability. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is near the high of September 14. If the mood signal does not turn down in the next couple of days, markets are likely to zoom to new highs and then some. However, social mood momentum is signaling that a trend change is near. A decisive break below 1760 would indicate the trend has shifted.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +13.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +4.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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