after market update: actual S&P +6.3 (+0.36%); Markets were choppy, but ended on a high note.
Today's Market Outlook is unchanged to up (0% to +2%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply up.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
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Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate up today, yet the mood signal is once again hitting a ceiling showing that improvement from here will be hard to come by. Social mood reflects a desperate, last gasp aggressiveness. The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster; also, a focus on government or government intervention. Markets are gearing up for a large break out or break down. It all depends on whether social mood pushes its way past current levels, or "gives up" and turns down. Regardless, markets should not get much past 1790 in the near future (the nearest social mood signal top-- see 1st chart below), if a top is not already in place.
Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate up today, yet the mood signal is once again hitting a ceiling showing that improvement from here will be hard to come by. Social mood reflects a desperate, last gasp aggressiveness. The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster; also, a focus on government or government intervention. Markets are gearing up for a large break out or break down. It all depends on whether social mood pushes its way past current levels, or "gives up" and turns down. Regardless, markets should not get much past 1790 in the near future (the nearest social mood signal top-- see 1st chart below), if a top is not already in place.
Today's Market Outlook is unchanged to up (0% to +2%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply up.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate, last gasp aggressiveness. The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster; also, a focus on government or government intervention of some type. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is back at the resistance area (see this post for more info). Markets should be gearing up for a strong break out or break down. The next few days are critical for direction.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +17.8 S&P points (for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday, the signal is +40 S&P points) as of the time of this posting. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +1.5 S&P points (for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday, the signal is +15.3 S&P points) as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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