Outlook 19 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -3.7 (-0.2%) ; Markets struggled to continue down today, as social mood was giving mixed signals.  With social mood  now at support, markets may briefly bounce tomorrow. There is no guarantee that a new high will be made before a more serious negative mood sets in with sharper losses.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.4%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -7.1  S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.