after market update: actual S&P +23.3 (+1.3%); As we said in yesterday's after market update, today might see a bounce or a pause, as the market was oversold relative to social mood. Today was a big bounce, much higher than apparent from today's mood signal. As the market is no longer oversold, we will be watching this weekend closely for developments in Monday's signal.
Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to down (+0.1% to -0.5%); While the social mood signal is mildly up at the time of this posting, the signal from themes in the news is sharply down. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty and confusion, as well as aggression-- an interesting mix. The themes in the news reflect uncertainty and a perception of deterioration, destruction, or disaster. Markets may move in one direction today, only to turn around and go the other way later on.
Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty and confusion, as well as aggression-- an interesting mix. The themes in the news reflect uncertainty and a perception of deterioration, destruction, or disaster. Markets may move in one direction today, only to turn around and go the other way later on.
Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to down (+0.1% to -0.5%); While the social mood signal is mildly up at the time of this posting, the signal from themes in the news is sharply down. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
(click to enlarge)
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with uncertainty, confusion, and aggression. The mood themes found in the news are associated with uncertainty as well as a perception of deterioration, destruction, or disaster. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and disaster.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is still quite near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area. Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here. The markets have broken below the key 1760-1780 area, but the mood signal still needs to confirm this downward trend change.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +2.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting. On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -15.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
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