after market update: actual S&P +1.27 (+0.07%); The mood / market signals were right on today. Markets were nearly unchanged all day, crawling along the zero line. Veteran's day perhaps played a part in that. Will markets push through this ceiling or fall through support? The next few days should give us the answer. Check back for tomorrow's mood signals at 12AM ET.
Today's Market Outlook is uncertain (-0.1% to +0.1%); Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are nearly unchanged. However, any surprise could cause a strong emotional reaction, and thus a big move at a moments notice. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
(click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview: Social mood is reflecting rising emotion and a move away from making decisions based on reason or facts. The themes in the news reflect uncertainty, as well as destruction, deterioration, or disaster. Based on current mood signals, markets should be near unchanged today. However, any surprise could cause a strong emotional reaction, and thus a big move at a moments notice.
Overview: Social mood is reflecting rising emotion and a move away from making decisions based on reason or facts. The themes in the news reflect uncertainty, as well as destruction, deterioration, or disaster. Based on current mood signals, markets should be near unchanged today. However, any surprise could cause a strong emotional reaction, and thus a big move at a moments notice.
Today's Market Outlook is uncertain (-0.1% to +0.1%); Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are nearly unchanged. However, any surprise could cause a strong emotional reaction, and thus a big move at a moments notice. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
(click to enlarge)
Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting rising emotion and a move away from making decisions based on reason or facts. The themes in the news reflect uncertainty, as well as destruction, deterioration, or disaster. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, geopolitical escalation, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is still quite near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area. Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here. The markets have broken below the key 1760-1780 area and are testing it once again. The mood signal still needs to confirm this downward trend change with a break of this area.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +8.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting (the signal from the entire weekend Saturday through Monday is -2.3 S&P points). On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
(click to enlarge)
Today’s news signal is +3.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting (the signal from the entire weekend Saturday through Monday is +2.6 S&P points). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
No comments:
Post a Comment