The social mood signals we use give us information about the markets several days ahead. We've developed a polling indicator, and while tracking well, gives info that is about a week old. We found a way around this impediment buy using the momentum of projected polling changes. By combining the Campaign Momentum Indicator and an adaptation of Elliott Wave analysis we were able to obtain useful information before the 1st and 2nd presidential debates (we abstained from the 3rd). Today is election day, and while leaning in a direction, we have to admit that the alternative has not been ruled out.
The base case outlook is that Trump is in a 3rd wave down and Clinton in a 3rd wave up, and that each is about to experience a 3rd of a 3rd in their particular direction. For those not familiar with Elliott Waves, this means a really big blast in that direction-- the grand finale. However, the way this has played out has left it somewhat ambiguous, and leaves a less probable, but not unlikely possibility that Trump has completed a c wave and beginning a new uptrend, and Clinton would be in a similar situation (not shown on chart). It looks cleaner (to me) with the 1-2 i-ii count, ready to blast into a 3rd of 3rd. However, I won't know for another week how this chart actually played out for election day.
Final call: Clinton winning is most probable, but not clear cut certain.
The base case outlook is that Trump is in a 3rd wave down and Clinton in a 3rd wave up, and that each is about to experience a 3rd of a 3rd in their particular direction. For those not familiar with Elliott Waves, this means a really big blast in that direction-- the grand finale. However, the way this has played out has left it somewhat ambiguous, and leaves a less probable, but not unlikely possibility that Trump has completed a c wave and beginning a new uptrend, and Clinton would be in a similar situation (not shown on chart). It looks cleaner (to me) with the 1-2 i-ii count, ready to blast into a 3rd of 3rd. However, I won't know for another week how this chart actually played out for election day.
Final call: Clinton winning is most probable, but not clear cut certain.
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