The Obama administration is coming to an end. While some may be celebrating, for others it might as well be the end of the world. In tracking the weekly changes in social mood, I've noticed a slow and steady increase in a somber and foreboding mood quality since the U.S. presidential election. The good news is that it reaches a peak in the coming week, and then drops off sharply. The bad news is that it reaches a peak in the coming week.
For whatever reason, the things we focus on as a society show up in the stock market, in the news, and in the general ambience of our lives shortly after. We know this because the hottest daily internet search trends contain information about what the markets are going to do, and the types of news stories that could come up about three days later. When we look at the mood qualities found in the search trends on a weekly basis, these qualities show up in the markets, the news, and in general, about three weeks later.
I find it fascinating that as we come upon this ending of a way of being in America, and how America conducts itself, that the data I'm looking at for this week of endings is the last week of 2016-- another ending. There was a lot of loss in that week. The biggest search trends focused on two amazing women, Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds, a famous mother and daughter who both died only a few days apart. Other public figures lost that week, which were also among the top trends, were George Michael and Ricky Harris.
It makes sense that if all that went on that last week of 2016, which in kind is to somehow become a part of this last week of the Obama presidency, that this would be a time for grief and trepidation. Yet, as uncertain as it is, the "New Year" comes and we adjust to what is. This chart (below) shows the four mood qualities that I track. If you look at that gray line (Controlled) that steadily and unusually rises since early November, you will see that it sharply drops after this week. That represents this extremely serious and foreboding mood ever increasing from election day through Inauguration day. Another interesting thing about this coming week is the overlay of the purple line (Expansive) and the gray line (Controlled). This is associated with strong emotions, irrational behavior, and panic responses.
With all the uncertainties in getting a new president, especially this one, it's not surprising to see this about next week. It's fascinating that this information came from events we Googled about three weeks ago. It may also not be surprising that markets could be quite sensitive and make large swings in either direction (panic responses) with little stimulus in this last week of a somewhat known quantity. This is a week when "fear itself" may be the greatest adversary to stability. We will be closely watching the daily signals in our member trading room at MarketMood.net.
When I find myself experiencing this dread of the unknowable and unpredictable dawn of Orange America, I remind myself that I don't need to get wrapped up in it. What is happening is; and even if it's the end of an era, or the end of a world, I can remind myself of the detached wisdom of R.E.M.: "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine."
For whatever reason, the things we focus on as a society show up in the stock market, in the news, and in the general ambience of our lives shortly after. We know this because the hottest daily internet search trends contain information about what the markets are going to do, and the types of news stories that could come up about three days later. When we look at the mood qualities found in the search trends on a weekly basis, these qualities show up in the markets, the news, and in general, about three weeks later.
I find it fascinating that as we come upon this ending of a way of being in America, and how America conducts itself, that the data I'm looking at for this week of endings is the last week of 2016-- another ending. There was a lot of loss in that week. The biggest search trends focused on two amazing women, Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds, a famous mother and daughter who both died only a few days apart. Other public figures lost that week, which were also among the top trends, were George Michael and Ricky Harris.
It makes sense that if all that went on that last week of 2016, which in kind is to somehow become a part of this last week of the Obama presidency, that this would be a time for grief and trepidation. Yet, as uncertain as it is, the "New Year" comes and we adjust to what is. This chart (below) shows the four mood qualities that I track. If you look at that gray line (Controlled) that steadily and unusually rises since early November, you will see that it sharply drops after this week. That represents this extremely serious and foreboding mood ever increasing from election day through Inauguration day. Another interesting thing about this coming week is the overlay of the purple line (Expansive) and the gray line (Controlled). This is associated with strong emotions, irrational behavior, and panic responses.
With all the uncertainties in getting a new president, especially this one, it's not surprising to see this about next week. It's fascinating that this information came from events we Googled about three weeks ago. It may also not be surprising that markets could be quite sensitive and make large swings in either direction (panic responses) with little stimulus in this last week of a somewhat known quantity. This is a week when "fear itself" may be the greatest adversary to stability. We will be closely watching the daily signals in our member trading room at MarketMood.net.
When I find myself experiencing this dread of the unknowable and unpredictable dawn of Orange America, I remind myself that I don't need to get wrapped up in it. What is happening is; and even if it's the end of an era, or the end of a world, I can remind myself of the detached wisdom of R.E.M.: "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine."
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