The world has been struggling to adjust to the unique style of the new Chief Executive of the United States. With all the turmoil observed and experienced in the U.S. over the last couple of weeks, it’s difficult to imagine that the coming week could be set apart as “An Emotional Week.” Yet, apparently that is just what we are about to get!
For whatever reason, those things that we collectively focus on (as seen in the top internet search trends) show up in kind a short time later. This can be seen in the types of stories that occur in the news, in the stock market, and in the general ambience of our lives. When we look at those things that held our focus on a weekly basis, we get a good clue about the general mood and market behavior that are likely to show up three weeks later.
While our dataset has over 20 top internet search trends each week, just looking at the top few gives us a good bit of information. The top three search trends that relate to the coming week are Inauguration, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the Dallas Cowboys. To be able to combine these into a meaningful picture of our week, we first break them down into the themes these terms contain. For this week: President, ritual, new era, man, nostalgia, prejudice, tolerance, killed, sports, loser. While an interesting combination of themes, it’s not yet clear why that leads to an “emotional week.”
The next step is to translate this into four primary mood qualities. Graphically, this is what we end up with:
The side of this graph on the left, the “West” side , is related to emotions and the non-rational. With “Expansive” slightly greater than “Controlled,” this is associated with passion, panic, and irrational decision making. In the markets, a volatile week is likely. It will be interesting to see how this week will be able to stand out from the last few in regards to “passion, panic, and irrational decision making.” Also, with this in mind, I will do all that I can to be aware of that in myself, and take some deep breaths and a moment of thought before making any important decisions!
In our members’ trading room at MarketMood.net, besides a daily analysis of the social mood, we translate internet search trends into market forecasts for the coming days and weeks for the stock market, crude oil, gold, and the U.S. Dollar. In this way, emotional weeks such as this one just ahead, does not have to be a liability!
For whatever reason, those things that we collectively focus on (as seen in the top internet search trends) show up in kind a short time later. This can be seen in the types of stories that occur in the news, in the stock market, and in the general ambience of our lives. When we look at those things that held our focus on a weekly basis, we get a good clue about the general mood and market behavior that are likely to show up three weeks later.
While our dataset has over 20 top internet search trends each week, just looking at the top few gives us a good bit of information. The top three search trends that relate to the coming week are Inauguration, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the Dallas Cowboys. To be able to combine these into a meaningful picture of our week, we first break them down into the themes these terms contain. For this week: President, ritual, new era, man, nostalgia, prejudice, tolerance, killed, sports, loser. While an interesting combination of themes, it’s not yet clear why that leads to an “emotional week.”
The next step is to translate this into four primary mood qualities. Graphically, this is what we end up with:
The side of this graph on the left, the “West” side , is related to emotions and the non-rational. With “Expansive” slightly greater than “Controlled,” this is associated with passion, panic, and irrational decision making. In the markets, a volatile week is likely. It will be interesting to see how this week will be able to stand out from the last few in regards to “passion, panic, and irrational decision making.” Also, with this in mind, I will do all that I can to be aware of that in myself, and take some deep breaths and a moment of thought before making any important decisions!
In our members’ trading room at MarketMood.net, besides a daily analysis of the social mood, we translate internet search trends into market forecasts for the coming days and weeks for the stock market, crude oil, gold, and the U.S. Dollar. In this way, emotional weeks such as this one just ahead, does not have to be a liability!
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