World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
- - -

This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

(click to enlarge)

 

The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

(click to enlarge)

 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

Volatility! : Outlook 28 February '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and increasing uncertainty globally.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -16.3 from Google Hot Trends, -0.8 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 27 February '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and increasing uncertainty globally.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -7.6 from Google Hot Trends, -4.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Violent Uncertainty: Outlook 26 February '14

after market update: actual S&P +.04  Markets were extremely uncertain, and are now extremely overbought relative to daily social mood; a reckoning is very near.  

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence and increasing uncertainty globally.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A slight sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -6.2 from Google Hot Trends, -0.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 25 February '14

after market update: actual S&P -2.49  Markets are becoming overbought relative to daily social mood; a reckoning is approaching.  Watch for the update near 12am ET.

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence globally and a willingness to take action toward a goal.  A moderate to strong sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: While markets have been rallying recently, social mood signals have continued to hover in a tight range (see Google trends chart below).  Mood signals are now breaking down below support indicating a sharp drop is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -5.0 from Google Hot Trends, -15.8 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Global Violence and War: Outlook 24 February '14

 

Overview:  The global risk of violence, geopolitical escalation and/or new war talk is rising.  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence globally and a willingness to take action toward a goal.  Mood signals for the day are strongly directional.  A strong sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: While markets have been rallying recently, social mood signals have continued to hover in a tight range (see Google trends chart below).  Mood signals are now breaking down below support indicating a sharp drop is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -29.6 from Google Hot Trends, -11.0 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 19 Feb '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising uncertainty, and a struggle to hold onto optimism.  Mood signals for the day are unclear about direction in the markets with almost equal forces pulling in both directions. 

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).     

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: +3.5 from Google Hot Trends, -2.3 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.