The big climax: Market Mood July 27-31, 2015

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Risk aversion reaches a peak the week of July 27 with a backdrop of violence in the news, according to this week's projected social mood pattern.  Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be greater than the previous week, indicating further market losses are likely.  However, the bearish mood will not likely continue past this week, at least in the near term. 

 

A "new paradigm" pattern early in the week indicates that markets could attempt a new direction as early as late Monday.  Thursday and Friday volatility should pick up, and large moves are likely.   

 

Uncertainty vs. Hope: Market Mood July 13-17, 2015

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The week of July 13 is characterized by a struggle between uncertainty about the global situation and the desire to hope that everything is going to be OK.  This will create an unusually choppy (or whipsaw) condition in the markets.  Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be slightly less this week than last week.  While conditions are not yet clearly bullish, they appear to be less bearish than the previous week.

 

 

Tentative optimism is projected to wane early in the week and be replaced by a nervous hope midweek.  By the end of the week, it may seem that it was too early to hope, as strong market moves return to the picture.

 

U.S. Market & Mood July 6-10, 2015

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According to social mood projections, Monday should be the most solidly bearish day for the stock market, and the middle of the week, the most clearly bullish or optimistic.  A major shift in the market pattern should take place near the end of the week at the same time that social mood shows increased instability of one type or another is likely to be a focal point of the news.  Spatial analysis shows that the most disruptive events are likely to occur outside of the United States.  Regardless, they should to get America's attention.

U.S. Market & Mood: June 29-July 2, 2015

Risk aversion may peak early in the week.  By midweek, a shift in the pattern shows a new mindset beginning to take hold. Market losses this week are likely going to be greater than last week's.


Social mood shows less willingness to cooperate and an increase in belligerence and willingness to challenge authority.  Tension is likely to lead to a climactic action either during this week or the following one.

Update July 2: Markets were down 1.1% this week.  This is a greater loss than the previous week's 0.5%.




 

U.S. Market and Mood: June 21-27, 2015

Change is in the air as the week begins.  Instability, large moves, and uncertainty are all likely themes (see chart left), especially in the first half of the week.  Tension and anticipation build near the end of the week. 

A large directional move is indicated in the markets this week.  The increasing sense of vulnerability (chart below, right) is most often associated with risk-aversion, decreased spending, and down markets.

U.S. Market and Mood (June 14-20, 2015)

The week begins with an effort to put on a positive, "yes we can" attitude.  There may be some lingering, ongoing economic concerns and domestic issues, but the sense is that they can be addressed and turned around.  Competing with this resolve to look at the bright side, is a background of destabilizing factors, some of which comes from outside the U.S.  People begin to get agitated and anxious as the week goes on.  Midweek could even see a "mild panic" or moment of passion (strong emotions), as a general sense of increasing vulnerability begins to take hold  By week's end, risk aversion is becoming more pronounced, and markets are getting more decidedly bearish.  People have fixed ideas and opinions of "the facts," and are more willing to talk about them.  Protests and demonstrations are on the increase.

Analysis of U.S.-China relations shows China posturing in a more aggressive tone near June 18.

U.S. Market and Mood (June 1-13, 2015)

Social mood patterns for the first week of June indicates anxiety and restlessness.  Markets should be choppy for the most part with little clear direction.  Sometime near the end of the first week or very early in the second week, a directional move should occur.  The most  likely direction is down, as this transitory pattern is most often associated with bearish markets and risk aversion.  Spatial analysis by the MoodCompass team shows economic concerns likely arising from outside the United States having some effect on U.S. markets (see The Crow's Nest blog entry for June).

By midweek the week of June 7 and continuing through the end of the week, a "new paradigm" pattern is in play.  This marks a new chapter in U.S. social mood.  Things should become a lot clearer as to global conditions and market direction as the week plays out.   A shift to this new outlook and new priorities will be in process.  Be ready for something different!

Analysis of U.S. - China relations shows a significant development near June 11.