More Trouble Ahead? - 16 Nov 2015

It would be great if the bad news was over.  However, the corrective look of the recovery in social mood since the tragic attacks in Paris (see chart below) means that there is likely at least one more big downward move left in mood and market.

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Social Mood and Stock Market Abnormally MANIC!

Social mood (as well as the stock market) has ups and downs, but arising in the last couple of days, a MANIC spike is concerning.  The chart below shows a normal range of ups and down in social mood factors since August.  The spike showing up is clearly NOT NORMAL.  Manic mood often accompanies instability, protests, and sometimes terrorist activity.  A "crazy" news event of some type is likely.

 

Update: 31 Oct 2015 Russian jet downed by ISIS That definitely is Not Normal and terrorist activity.

 

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The stock market is clearly overly excited as well.  The daily social mood signal is at resistance and doesn't seem to be able to break through.  The stock market has continued to move higher in spite of the anxiety the public is experiencing. Either people are about to be feeling a whole lot better, or the market is going to hit a wall.

 



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Moving onward: Mood and Market Aug 23-29, 2015

There is a growing desire to move beyond the serious mood of the past week as this week moves forward.  However, there may still be some serious news very early in the week as the mood factors from last week (background of violent or volatile news and serious tone) reach their climax.

Market dropped sharply last week, 6.7% from Wednesday through Friday.  As of Saturday, social mood shows that markets are currently 3% oversold.  That is, they are 3% below where social mood would place them.  Markets could be confused as they shift direction early in the week, but a large 3% bounce would not be surprising as the desire to move beyond last week's big losses takes hold.

 

A Very Scary Week: Aug 16-22, 2015

Next week's news stories will be violent and volatile, and the mood in the U.S. extremely serious, according to social mood projections. 

The stock market the week of Aug 16 should see an end of a pattern.  The most likely move is sharply down at least through sometime on Friday.

 

A News Driven Week: Mood & Market Aug 9-15, 2015

 

This week is all about the news (or data), especially news outside of the United States, and building tension surrounding it.  People are feeling generally anxious as the week begins.  There should be a shift around Thursday as the background news becomes more volatile or violent, and people begin to feel more cautious.

 

The way this pattern plays out in the market is not exactly bullish, but is markedly different from the previous week.  There should be a noticeable shift on Thursday from what takes place on Monday through Wednesday.  Whether the "Aversion" taking hold on Thursday manifests as short covering in the stock market or a sell off will depend on how the market does on Monday-Wednesday.

 

Rising Uncertainty: Mood & Market Aug. 2-8, 2015

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Change is in the air, and uncertainty is rising, according to U.S. collective mood projections for the week of Aug 2.  Expect earlier understandings and assumptions to be challenged, and people to be even more challenging.  A background of international issues are likely to be in the news, and have the attention of U.S. people.

 

Markets could be extra confusing or constricted for much of this week.  Although there is the possibility of a market disruption of some type, overall, it looks like it would probably be a good week for traders to take a vacation.     

The big climax: Market Mood July 27-31, 2015

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Risk aversion reaches a peak the week of July 27 with a backdrop of violence in the news, according to this week's projected social mood pattern.  Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be greater than the previous week, indicating further market losses are likely.  However, the bearish mood will not likely continue past this week, at least in the near term. 

 

A "new paradigm" pattern early in the week indicates that markets could attempt a new direction as early as late Monday.  Thursday and Friday volatility should pick up, and large moves are likely.