As the outlook over the next few days shifts from belief-based and emotional themes to reality and fact-based themes, anxiety and feelings of vulnerability should be on the rise.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Monday, November 16, 2015
More Trouble Ahead? - 16 Nov 2015
It would be great if the bad news was over. However, the corrective look of the recovery in social mood since the tragic attacks in Paris (see chart below) means that there is likely at least one more big downward move left in mood and market.
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Monday, October 26, 2015
Social Mood and Stock Market Abnormally MANIC!
Social mood (as well as the stock market) has ups and downs, but arising in the last couple of days, a MANIC spike is concerning. The chart below shows a normal range of ups and down in social mood factors since August. The spike showing up is clearly NOT NORMAL. Manic mood often accompanies instability, protests, and sometimes terrorist activity. A "crazy" news event of some type is likely.
Update: 31 Oct 2015 Russian jet downed by ISIS That definitely is Not Normal and terrorist activity.
(click to enlarge)
The stock market is clearly overly excited as well. The daily social mood signal is at resistance and doesn't seem to be able to break through. The stock market has continued to move higher in spite of the anxiety the public is experiencing.
Either people are about to be feeling a whole lot better, or the market is going to hit a wall.
(click to enlarge)
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Moving onward: Mood and Market Aug 23-29, 2015
There is a growing desire to move beyond the serious mood of the past week as this week moves forward. However, there may still be some serious news very early in the week as the mood factors from last week (background of violent or volatile news and serious tone) reach their climax.
Market dropped sharply last week, 6.7% from Wednesday through Friday. As of Saturday, social mood shows that markets are currently 3% oversold. That is, they are 3% below where social mood would place them. Markets could be confused as they shift direction early in the week, but a large 3% bounce would not be surprising as the desire to move beyond last week's big losses takes hold.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
A Very Scary Week: Aug 16-22, 2015
The stock market the week of Aug 16 should see an end of a pattern. The most likely move is sharply down at least through sometime on Friday.
Sunday, August 9, 2015
A News Driven Week: Mood & Market Aug 9-15, 2015
This week is all about the news (or data), especially news outside of the United States, and building tension surrounding it. People are feeling generally anxious as the week begins. There should be a shift around Thursday as the background news becomes more volatile or violent, and people begin to feel more cautious.
The way this pattern plays out in the market is not exactly bullish, but is markedly different from the previous week. There should be a noticeable shift on Thursday from what takes place on Monday through Wednesday. Whether the "Aversion" taking hold on Thursday manifests as short covering in the stock market or a sell off will depend on how the market does on Monday-Wednesday.
Sunday, August 2, 2015
Rising Uncertainty: Mood & Market Aug. 2-8, 2015
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Change is in the air, and uncertainty is rising, according to U.S. collective mood projections for the week of Aug 2. Expect earlier understandings and assumptions to be challenged, and people to be even more challenging. A background of international issues are likely to be in the news, and have the attention of U.S. people.
Markets could be extra confusing or constricted for much of this week. Although there is the possibility of a market disruption of some type, overall, it looks like it would probably be a good week for traders to take a vacation.
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