Social Mood and Markets are Pointing Down again: Outlook 17 Sept '13

Overview:  Collective mood has turned down and the markets should be right behind it.  The world is looking less stable and predictable.  People are feeling less safe as this realization becomes more pronounced.  Estimated stock market losses today near 1/2%.

after market update: actual S&P +7.2 (+0.42%); Markets were up near 1/2%.  With tension building between dropping social mood and rising stock markets, tomorrow could be very interesting.

Today's Market Outlook is Down.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative as of the time of this posting.  Sometimes markets have a slight lag at major turning points.  However, upside should be limited, and any rallies should soon be met with selling pressure.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action or violence and rising seriousness, not surprising after yesterday's events. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, terrorist activity, and disasters, the same as yesterday.  Diplomacy efforts may appear less and less likely to be successful.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend had turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce may be complete; resuming of the larger downtrend is at hand.  

 

Today’s social mood signal is -7.6 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge).

Today’s news signal is -4.1 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down.   

 

 

Bursting the Bubble: Outlook 16 Sept ' 13

after market update: actual S&P +9.7 (+0.57%); Nasdaq -4.3.  Market were up over 1% at open, as a gunman stormed the Naval Ship Yard in Washington D.C.  They went sideways and dropped to lose half their gains by closing.
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Overview: Climax is afoot; trend change at hand.  Today's social mood and news signals taken from the entire weekend show a surge of direction, countered by hesitancy and mixed feeling.  At the time of this posting, futures are way up, apparently due to Summer's withdrawal from consideration as a Fed chair.  Yet, both mood and news signals do not support a smooth ride.  The mood is clearly topping and getting shaky.  The markets should turn down from their highs at some point in the session, and possibly even end the day in the negative. The call for today therefore, is nearly unchanged in spite of the large rally going into the opening.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action or violence. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, terrorist activity, and  disasters.  

 

end of day update: today's themes in the news--

Shooting rampage at Navy Yard in DC leaves 13 dead

Turkey Says It Shot Down Syrian Military Helicopter Flying in Its Airspace

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged / Mixed.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are positive as of the time of this posting.  Both social mood and news signal momentum indicate a very high risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +8.2 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday thru Monday is -0.2 S&P points).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near, if not in progress.  Looking at the signal for the entire weekend, it should be difficult for markets to stay positive till day's end.

  

Today’s news signal is +1.6 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday thru Monday is +1.2 S&P points).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly up.  Signal momentum shows strong risk of trend change.  

 

 

A New Disaster Indicated? 15-16 Sept '13

In a preliminary look at Monday's social mood and stock market, a sudden change is seen showing up sometime Sunday/Monday.  This big shift, as it looks now, would translate into a 200-300 point drop in the DOW or about 24 points in the S&P on Monday.  What could cause such a mad rush out of the markets?

There may be several causes attributed to such a shift.  Some may blame it on the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Fed meeting.  Or, it may be simply because collective mood has changed and is turning to a more protective or fearful place. 

It also happens that there are quite a few "disasters" in the news right now (e.g. Colorado flooding, New Jersey boardwalk fire).  Would a market drop be seen as one more of these "disasters" right now?  Or, possibly, would something else be attributed as the immediate cause of such a market drop? (BTW-- we cautioned about an upcoming "disaster season" indicated by collective mood back on September 3).

FYI- Below are the preliminary mood and market charts for Monday.  The abrupt change on Sunday is clear in the social mood signal as well as the one from the mood portrayed in the news.

 

Markets topping, but Hanging in: Outlook 13 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +4.57(+0.27%) Dow up 1/2%.

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Overview: Today's mood shows a continued attempt to maintain a positive outlook, and the news signal is once again positive.  However, social mood signal momentum shows a very strong pull against continued upward motion.  Markets are in a topping process, yet may, with a struggle, gain up to 1/2 % today.  Markets could be choppy today as forces pull in both directions, vying for dominance.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with transition, or waiting for a "new chapter" to begin. Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorist activity, government intervention and themes of uncertainty, surprise, or disasters.  

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Up / Mixed.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  Social mood momentum indicates a high and increasing risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.6 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +8.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up.  

 

 

A new News Cycle; Markets Topping: Outlook 12 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -5.71 (-0.34%) Markets climbed to less than 1 point above the zero line before turning down in a choppy fashion!

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Overview: Today's mood shows an attempt to maintain positive momentum, but the news signal shows something new coming over the horizon that might put a damper on that.  Social mood signal momentum is increasingly negative showing a strong pull against continued upward motion.  Markets are in a topping process.  Markets may, with a struggle, make it slightly above the zero line today.  While the bias is still positive, markets could be choppy as forces pull in both directions, vying for dominance.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action, violence, and instability. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to instability, terrorist activity, violent protests, fires and events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and violent storms.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up / Mixed.  The social mood signal is moderately positive and the news signal is slightly negative as of the time of this posting.  Both social mood and news signal momentum indicate an increasing risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +9.4 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly down and indicates an imminent trend change.  

 

 

News and Markets turning Sour: Outlook 11 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.09 (0.3%) Markets struggled entire session, down or sideways for much of it.  "Eek out" was a great description of today's action.

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Overview: Today's mood and news signal show a sense of continued positive developments.  However, signal momentum indicates the upside is losing steam, and a reversal is near (not necessarily today).  Markets could eek out another 7-10 points today, but if so, it should be a struggle to hold such gains through day's end.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with volatility and violence. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to instability, terrorist activity, violent protests, fires and events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and violent storms.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned up, but may be losing steam.  A reversal is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but with increased risk of trend reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  However, both social mood and news signal momentum indicate an increased risk of trend reversal.

Today’s social mood signal is +11.5 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +13.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up, but news signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

Trend Change in News and Markets, Could be Today or Tomorrow: 10 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +12.28 (0.73%)! 

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Overview: Today's mood and news signal show a sense of continued positive developments.  However, signal momentum indicates a trend change is likely either today or tomorrow.  Markets could rally up to 0.7% today, but it is uncertain whether they will hold their gains through day's end.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action and self-sacrifice for group goals. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to increased terrorist activity, violent protests, fires or events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and high winds.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend may be turning up.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but with increased risk of mid-session reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  However, both social mood and news signal momentum indicate a high risk of trend reversal today or tomorrow.

Today’s social mood signal is +12.3 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but momentum indicates a high chance of trend change today or tomorrow.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +13.9 S&P points.   News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up, but news signal momentum indicates a high risk of trend reversal today or tomorrow.  Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.