Violent Mood, Bad News, and Market Rally?: Outlook 9 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P +16.54.  The market did rally 1%!

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Overview: Today's mood and news signals reflect a very large shift in social mood and the news, as well as signaling a huge rally.  However, with such a large change, one might expect volatility, confusion, and choppiness, rather than the indicated 1-2% rally.  We'll see what happens.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed violence, volatility,  geopolitical escalation, and troop movement. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to vulnerability and economic contraction.  Natural events associated with this pattern are fires and volcanoes.

Longer term outlook: The social mood signal trend may be turning up; today's events and responses may be critical to the longer trend.

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but capable of sharp reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are strongly positive as of the time of this posting.  However, because the social mood reflects volatility, a sharp reversal is possible.

Today’s social mood signal is +13.8 S&P points (+47.6 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday thru today).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

  

 

Today’s news signal is +17.3 S&P points (+19.5 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today).   News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up.  Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

Vulnerable and Waiting: Outlook 6 Sept. '13

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, self-sacrifice, and group ideology.  This combination has an eerie ring to it, and conjures images of suicide bombers or jihad.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to vulnerability or unpreparedness, and economic contraction.  Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, disaster, or "us versus them."

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Possible Syria strike prompts protest at US Embassy
US orders embassy workers out of Beirut ahead of possible Syria ...
US issues travel advisory in Lebanon and Turkey

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but capable of sharp reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are positive as of the time of this posting; however, the social mood signal is at resistance.  It would be difficult for it to go much higher than it currently is, at least in the short term.  This means upside is limited, and a sharp reversal  could occur at any time.

Today’s social mood signal is +7.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Also, the social mood signal is at resistance.  It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.

after market update: actual S&P +0.08.  Markets were up over 9 points at the highs, but ended near unchanged.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +4.3 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up.  Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

Courting Disaster: Outlook 5 Sept '13

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, self-sacrifice, and group ideology.  This combination has an eerie ring to it, and conjures images of suicide bombers or jihad.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, religious disagreements, and volcanoes.  Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, especially natural disasters. 

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Iran Plots Revenge, US Says

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly negative as of the time of this posting.

after market update: actual S&P +2.00.

Today’s social mood signal is -1.6 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  The mood is somewhat more serious than yesterday.  Also, the social mood signal is at resistance.  It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.

  

 

Today’s news signal is -2.2 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down.  Also, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

 

Bad news; Markets down: Outlook 4 Sept '13

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys), "new realities," and natural disasters.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are destructive events, terrorist activity, and technology news.   Also, events that portray a theme of violence, vulnerability, and the unexpected. 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly negative as of the time of this posting.

after market update: actual S&P +13.31. 

Today’s social mood signal is -0.8 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
  

 

Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down.  Also, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

 

Caution, Disaster Season Ahead

update 13 Sept '13: Are these the early warning signals, or is this it?
Al Qaeda calls for attacks inside United States
National Guard evacuating Colo. town hit hard by flood
NJ boardwalk fire nearly contained; cause unknown
"Brain-eating" amoeba found in St. Bernard Parish water supply
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Collective mood is signaling that a global "disaster season" lasting a week or more may soon be upon us.  It could be severe enough to cause people to question the prospect of a possible global economic recovery, and at least some of what occurs would directly impact the United States of America.  According to social mood patterns, the following types of events are most likely:

1) Terrorist activity, anti-establishment or other revolutionary activity; ideological and/or religious factors would likely be connected.

2) Completely unanticipated, unexpected, or surprising.

3) Natural events associated with the current social mood pattern are earthquakes, cyclones, and other very windy or violent storms.

Any major natural event would appear to "target" large population centers, and may be disruptive to food or water supplies, transportation, or communication systems.  Serious economic consequences would likely accompany any disaster or tragic event during this period.

Needless to say, the types of events described above are probably other than a U.S. strike on Syria (which many are so concerned with at this time).



Celebrate and Retreat: Outlook for 3 Sep '13

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with rising passions.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, technology news, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys).  Also, events that portray a theme of violence, volatility, and the unexpected. 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's Market Outlook is Rally and Reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal were strongly positive over the weekend; but have backed off of that as of the time of this posting.  Markets may have difficulty holding all of their weekend-relief gains for the entire session.

after market update: actual S&P +6.8.  Wall Street up, but rally fizzles on support for Syria strike

Today’s social mood signal is +8.0 S&P points (+24.0 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Social mood is at resistance; it may have a difficult time going much higher in the near term.
  

 

Today’s news signal is +5.3 S&P points (+13.7 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up.  However, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.

 

 

Celebrating Uncertainty... at least for now

Syria is not going to get blasted by the United States, at least for the moment.  Uncertainty often causes stress, but at least this time, both the social mood signal and the mood signal obtained from the news show that this is being experienced by the people of the U.S. and perhaps the world as somewhat of a relief.

The current mood is extremely unstable; however, nothing lasts forever, right?  This is a moment that collectively we relax into the unknown, while at the same time feeling the agitation of the unkowningness of it all.  It isn't comfortable, but at least it isn't a new war... or at least not today.

While U.S. markets are closed on Monday, global markets could have a good rally, at least for most of their sessions.  If the U.S. stock market was open on Monday, collective mood signals suggest markets would likely gain between 0.5% to 1.2%. 

What a funny thing social mood is.  People are afraid of what might happen, then relieved at what won't happen... for now.  Yet, life is always uncertain.  Sometimes, perhaps, we are more aware of it.  Still, what social mood is clearly saying at this very moment, regardless of the hold put on a U.S. strike on Syria until congress can debate it, is that something highly destructive is gearing up to take place.  And it doesn't look like it cares whether or not congress is there to debate it or not.

There is no clear signal at this point that it is tomorrow or even the next day.  However, it isn't likely going to wait until congress is back in session.  But, for now, we should all get back to celebrating because today is not the day that this thing is going to happen, certainly.