after market update: actual S&P -23.17. Large stock market sell-offs are often the first clear symptom of more bad news to come. Thus begins this "bad news" chapter as Wall Street lost over 1% in a sharp decline. Watch for a climax in global bad news before this is over.
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Overview: A new global chapter is unfolding, and it looks like trouble is brewing. Collective mood reflects the perception of a new chapter beginning. Themes in the news reflect a perception of instability and general "Bad News." Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate to sharp sell-off in the market is likely.
Near Term: Global mood trends are in transition; the markets have been going sideways. Near term social mood trend has been pushing against a "ceiling" but seems to now be in process of turning down.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent. The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: -2.5 from Google Hot Trends, -19.5 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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