after market update: actual S&P -2.5. Markets retreated from highs in a mostly sideways motion in line with social mood. Markets remain highly overbought relative to collective mood signals.
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Overview: Collective mood shows rising uncertainty and ambiguity. Mood signals for the day indicate a market that has little room left to rise, and markets are highly overbought relative to social mood. In other words, it wouldn't take much of a nudge to initiate a sharp sell-off.
Near Term: Global mood trends show sharply rising uncertainty and ambiguity. Near term social mood trend had been pushing against a "ceiling"(see Google Hot Trends chart below) but is now in process of turning down sharply.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent. The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: +3.0 from Google Hot Trends, +0.2 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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