after market update: actual S&P +4.23. Today's unemployment report was much worse than expected, but since that could mean the Fed might be slow to taper that helped markets hang in there with a mild rally as social mood signals indicated. Reminder: Major negative or tragic international news (non-U.S.) is near and expected to come "over the horizon" in the week following January 10th.
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Overview: Collective mood reflects the perception of a new chapter beginning. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild to moderate rally in the market is likely. Will the new chapter be "clear sailing ahead" or "new trouble brewing?" We should know by early next week.
Near Term: Global mood trends are in transition; the markets have been going sideways. Near term social mood trend is positive, and is pushing against a "ceiling."
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent. The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: +1.2 from Google Hot Trends, +12.9 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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