after market update: actual S&P -4.6. The U.S. is in a deep freeze and China looks like it's economy is loosing steam. The best the markets could make with all the social mood energy was a push back up to 0 after an initial mild selloff. A near-term climax may be near.
(click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview: People really, really want 2014 to be better than 2013. Collective mood reflects global trends of aggression and violence, but almost as a desperate attempt to ward off perceptions of weakness or vulnerability. Mood signals for the day indicate a large market move is likely, with a large rally the most likely scenario (1830 must hold). Will negative news come in before the end of the day and rock the boat? Major negative or tragic international news (non-U.S.) is on the horizon.
Near Term: Global trends of aggression and violence should continue to be prominent. With the aggressive mood, markets may get a boost from a collective adrenaline rush. Near term social mood trend is positive, but may be nearing a ceiling.
Long Term: Collective mood has not been keeping pace with the market sugar high of quantitative easing, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent. The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: +48.2 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
(click to enlarge)
Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
(click to enlarge)
Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
No comments:
Post a Comment