Big Bad News this Weekend?

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Individually, this might be a great weekend for many people.  On a global scale, there is a big bad news story likely just around the corner.  Stock market trend changes tend to follow just behind social mood changes.  The news, on the other hand, tends to lag just behind that (believe it or not).  Social mood started showing a sharp drop beginning on January 12, 2014 (see #1 in chart above).  At this same time, the stock market was still moving sideways.  The news signal was still going up until January 22 (see #1 in chart below).

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The market is now sharply dropping.  According to the social mood signal (see #2 in Google Hot Trend chart), it should pause at least briefly in the S&P 1780 to 1800 area.  The news signal, on the other hand, has not yet shown its sharp drop.  That may come as soon as this weekend (see #2 in News chart).  It's possible that a "big bad news story" could accompany this.  It is also possible, that a relieving news story occurs relatively soon that leads to the market pause or bounce which is also right around the corner.

Please note that these are preliminary charts and were produced with data available as of January 24.  The official January 27 chart is not released until midnight (E.T.) of January 27.  Because of this we will not yet comment on area #3 in the Google Trends chart.

Don't miss out on seeing our global and U.S. overview for the year 2104 at: http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com/2014/01/2014-global-and-us-overview.html