after market update: actual S&P +11.11. It took another day for the hopeful push to kick in, but markets made a good rally today. Will it make a difference in collective mood when the U.S.-wide Winter freeze begins to thaw out a bit tomorrow?
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Overview: Collective mood reflects the global trend of aggression and violence, also government or government intervention (new FOMC chairman Yellen?), and rising bad news in the background. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild rally is likely (1830 must be regained and held). Note that trend changes often show up in mood before the market catches up, and yesterday showed a large rally that never materialized. Major negative or tragic international news (non-U.S.) is on the horizon.
Near Term: Global trends of aggression and violence should continue to be prominent. Near term social mood trend is positive, but may be nearing a ceiling.
Long Term: Collective mood has not been keeping pace with the market sugar high of quantitative easing, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent. The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: +7.8 from Google Hot Trends, +0.4 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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