Global Disasters not yet finished

Recap: the MoodCompass team reported a disaster indicator peaking near August 1-8 that would impact the United States, but be more destructive outside the U.S. (see last few posts). It continues to play out.

Tropical storm Iselle will hopefully turn out to pack less of a punch to Hawaii than feared.  However, the MoodCompass disaster indicator says there is an even higher likelihood globally for natural disasters or major global changes tomorrow (8 Aug) than there were today.  The approximately 1 week period of an anticipated cluster of disasters began to show on 2 August with toxic water in Ohio, a potentially deadly inconvenience.  The following day, a major earthquake in China toppled thousands of homes and killed 600 people.  Today, 7 Aug, a rare hurricane landfall in Hawaii may cause some damages, but hopefully they will be minimal.  Tomorrow and into early next week, this global disaster wave should continue to play itself out.  Best case, it will soon run out of steam and fade away.  All that is clear today, is that it isn't over yet.

Global Cluster of Disaster-type Events Underway

As mentioned in previous posts, a global cluster of disaster-type events has begun, and it may be another week before this disaster wave peaks (current data shows it is not even near peak yet).  While the most destructive events should be located outside the United States, the U.S. will not be immune.

Saturday kicked it off with Ohio's forth largest city suddenly finding itself waterless due to toxins found in the drinking water. This has resulted in the governor declaring a state of emergency.  See news story.

On Sunday, over 12,000 homes were destroyed in China due to a large earthquake.  The current death toll is near 400.  See story.

There should be another week or possibly more filled with headlines of death, destruction, disease, and/or toxicity.  This is the measureable shift in consciousness we have already made in collectively turning away from a focus on global violence, aggression, and expansion.  It just hasn't yet all shown up in the news.  Give it a week or two.  We will have a new global focus, new types of collective troubles to worry about.  Perhaps it doesn't have to be this way, but for now, this is what gets our collective attention, and allows us to globally shift gears.



For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Update, 1st Week of August Event, 2014

On 24 July, we announced a disaster or tragic event of high impact to the United States was near and most likely to occur between August 1-8, 2014.  Also, that more information would be available in the days ahead as to the type of event that was anticipated.

The shift in social mood points to a collective desire to shift *away* from global violence as people become concerned with new types of threats.  Some of these new types of concerns, such as disease and economic issues have already begun to surface as Ebola makes headlines and market volatility spikes.  Environmental tragedies and natural events that relate to water or fluid such as severe storms, flooding, a tsunami, or volcanic eruptions (lava) may also be a part of this cluster.

At this time, we can say the following about likely events of this period:
1) The bulk of the destructive components of these events should be international (non-U.S.) in origin.
2) There could be a significant economic component or impact to the U.S.
3) The event or series of events should dominate U.S. conversation and air-wave time for days if not weeks.

For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Stock Market Panic Ahead?

As we await more information about a tragic event that should strongly impact the U.S. any day now (signal indicates most likely timeframe August 1-8, see previous post), the stock market is indicating strong bias toward a sharp sell-off.  In addition, today's social mood is showing a shift toward "panic."  Something big is brewing.  The chart below shows how the stock market has been generally in the same spot for three weeks, while social mood has lead the way steadily down (mood most often leads the market's direction).

 

U.S Disaster, 1st Week of August, 2014

A U.S. disaster signal has been detected by the MoodCompass Project team after many months of little to no U.S. disaster activity.  It should be of significant emotional impact to most people within the U.S., and will most likely include loss of life greater than seen in average news stories; economic losses are also likely.

We will wait a few more days before presenting further information about the likely type of disaster while we sift through our data, and get additional information.

A disaster signal is generated when the relationship between U.S. social focus (social mood measured by top Google Hot Trends) and social mood factors found in the top U.S. news stories meets certain criteria.  You can see in the chart below, that the U.S. disaster mood factor today spiked up from the low range area it normally hovers in.  This means that there is a significant risk of a U.S. disaster in the near future, most likely between 7 and 14 days from now, or August 1 - 8.

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The second chart (below), is a snap shot of the intensity of these factors.  The greatest specific threat showing up as of today is mass violence or terrorism.  However, we will be getting more information in the next few days.

 

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Time to Panic?

We've been watching the setup develop for months of what has turned out to be a long and painful process, as the world fights to hold on to a sense of growth, expansion, and/or aggression (the alternatives being contraction, depression, and/or despair).  We called the first chapter of "World in Crisis" which we then discovered included the beginnings of the Ukraine crisis, a missing Malaysian airliner,  and a Korean ferry disaster.  Part II of this "World in Crisis" phenomenon saw ISIS take parts of Iraq and Syria, eruption of conflict with Israel/Gaza, further escalation in Ukraine, and another downed Malaysian aircraft with all aboard lost.  Part III is nearing.

There has been a steady negative social mood trend for two weeks.  Intraday movement (volatility) has begun to increase in the stock market, yet markets have managed to stay nearly flat.  Pressure is leaning on the markets for a 3% drop, just to catch up to where social mood has recently deteriorated to. The grand finale we have been watching for in the recent series of world events is not yet here, but as said previously, a drop in the market should be a clear signal that it's getting close.  The next few days could be quite informative. 

 

World in Crisis, Part II

In the previous post, we summed up the latest on this complex global crisis pattern that began in late February.  The Ukraine crisis kicked it off, then the Malaysian jet disappearance made headlines for weeks.  The Korean ferry sunk, killing hundreds.  In the U.S. there were late winter storms, killer tornadoes, and a barrage of news stories of people "losing it" and shooting people.

It was discussed that with all of the angst and distress, globally, and within the U.S. that these events appeared to be of the type that signal the main event yet to come-- precursor events.  We expected the "disaster signal" (see 1st chart below) to stay above the line drawn near the bottom right of the chart and to at some point turn up.  Through all these weeks, this signal line has been churning away near that baseline, neither clearly going up toward a new set up, nor falling down in release.  It has been a difficult time of transition for many, yet the big impact for the U.S. has not yet appeared.

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While there is not yet a clear indication that the "grand finale" is imminent, there is a clue from social mood and the stock market that it is becoming quite close, likely within a few weeks away.  The chart below shows expected stock market movement derived from social mood (Google Hot Trends) versus actual stock market movement.  The two lines on this chart are usually pretty much in sink.  What this is telling us is two things: 1) The market trend is up, and in line to continue to new highs; and 2) The market is not able to go much higher than it currently is without first making a sharp drop down to at least the 1700-1750 area (the social mood signal dropped there in March, but the market didn't follow along-- it can't get away with that indefinitely).  In other words, an 8 to 10 percent correction is required for the market to continue much higher than where it is right now (S&P 1884).  If by chance, markets continue to eek out another 2 percent (1922-ish), the drop will need to be that much greater (10 to 12 percent).

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According to Robert Prechter's research in Socionomics, the big events tend to come near market bottoms.  Tomorrow's (Tuesday's) daily mood signal is showing a dip.  Is this the beginning of the drop toward the 1700s?  Will tomorrow be the next step closer to this grand finale still a few weeks away (before the market returns to an uptrend)?  If not, we will keep watching for the next indicator.