Expect the Unexpected: Outlook 14 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.0 (+0.4%); The uncertainty and the unexpected for today so far was that there was talk of progress, but a meeting with the President was postponed, and markets went up on hope.  Will the next surprise be that a deal is made, or that there is no hope whatsoever?  Either way, markets are outpacing what social mood will support.  Something has to give.

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 14, and participants should be aggressively and desperately pushing their side's agendas while trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, surprise, and the perception of chaos.  The stock market may be at the beginning of a serious decline.

Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.1% to -0.5%).  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.  The overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by the models.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressive, but desperate forward pushing, and trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  It is not conducive to a genuine breakthrough in negotiations in the U.S. government impasse.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion,  the unexpected, chaos, protests, and terrorism.  This particular pattern also corresponds with news of unexpected, chaotic natural events such as tornadoes and earthquakes.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: Social mood is once again trying to break below support (see chart below).  A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -9.5 S&P points (-8.3 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is -3.4 S&P points ( -1.1 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. 

Aggressive Surge Impacting Shutdown Talks: Preliminary Outlook for Monday

Over the weekend, the mood factor associated with aggressively pursuing group agendas surged in U.S. collective mood (see chart below).  It has not been this high all year.  At the same time, the capacity to understand a different point of view or pursue diplomatic negotiations is near the low for the year.  There is almost no chance of any resolution on the government shutdown anytime soon, with one possible exception.

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The only way for some type of budge in the current impasse would be for group identity to shift.  "My group" would have to include both parties.  In other words, instead of Tea Party or Democrat or anti-Obama, etc.  the majority would need to see "My group" as a larger whole, for instance, "American."  This may sound absurdly simple, but if it was that easy we would be there now.  The fastest way to get this type of shift would be to have an emergency or disaster that comes from "out there" affecting all or most Americans in some way.  This could be a human caused emergency such as a terrorist attack, a market crash, or even a natural disaster of some type.  It will be interesting if such an emergency shows up in the nick of time to create this cohesion and unity out of the chaos.  Otherwise, an agreement might have to wait until the social mood is more conducive to negotiations on its own.  It will get there at some point.

Preliminary Market Outlook: Moderately to Sharply Down
Monday's official outlook won't be released for another four hours, but here's what we got at this moment (see chart).  Social mood is near breaking down below support again.  Markets could be in for quite a tumble if nothing improves between now and Monday morning.

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.

Shutdown-- Explanations and Posturing: Outlook 12 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +10.6 (+0.6%); Today we have had a lot of talking, as the collective mood indicated we would.  The latest breaking news: "Obama and Boehner talk by phone, and the speaker's spokesman says, 'agreed that we should all keep talking.'"  

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 11, and participants should be continuing to posture from an aggressive position, with increasing communication and information being passed back and forth between parties and to the general public.  Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an increase in communications or information.  The stock market's bounce should turn back down momentarily (if not today, then early next week).  It's possible that the named reason for the turn down, when it does occur, could be something other than the shutdown.  Today's markets should be consolidating and may be slightly up.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Up (+0.5% to +0.8%).  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are moderately positive.  Today's gains may turn out to be less than the model predicts due to yesterday's large move (markets are overbought per the model), thus "slightly up" is given as the description.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate forward pushing, as well as trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and communication or information.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The bounce in mood due to speculation that the U.S. government impasse might be on its way to a solution, is expected to be over by early next week.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is +7.2 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is +2.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of +15.8 S&P points (social mood signal) to +15.3 S&P points (news signal), or +0.9% to +0.93%.

 

MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 19.8  SW 42  SE 22.5  NW 15.7

MoodCompass News score input: NE 26.1  SW 21.1  SE 31.6  NW 21.3

 

Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Glee, Kanye West, Alice Munro, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago Bears.

 

News scores from U.S. news stories on: Private charity to cover fallen troops' death benefits during shutdown, Obama, GOP Open Talks Over Temporary Debt Fix, Utah's national parks will reopen despite ongoing government shutdown, Ariel Castro possibly died from 'autoerotic asphyxiation': report, and Ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick sentenced to 28 years in prison for corruption.

Shutdown-- Hanging Tough, but Trying; Markets Down: Outlook 10 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +36.1 (+2.2%); We were right on with the mood, and the shutdown progress, but did not get the market rally, which was straight up.  The larger mood trend is still down, so the rally should be short-lived.  

P.M update: After Obama and Republican leadership met, S&P futures dropped sharply. See news: Obama rejects GOP proposal for short-term debt limit plan

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 10, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, yet trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational.  Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The stock market's brief bounce should turn back down momentarily.  It's possible that the named reason for the turn down, when it does occur, could be something other than the shutdown.

Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.3% to -0.4%).  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggressiveness, and trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The brief bounce in mood due to speculation that the U.S. government impasse might be on its way to a solution, is about over.  At the time of this posting futures are up almost 1/2%.  Yet, the social mood signal has turned down and has breached 1650 S&P.  Markets are expected to soon do the same.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -4.3 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is -5.9 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  Is there some really bad news ahead?   

 

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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of -4.3 S&P points (social mood signal) to -5.9 S&P points (news signal), or -0.3% to -0.4%.

 

MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 21.5  SW 36.2  SE 22.4  NW 20.0

MoodCompass News score input: NE 24.8  SW 21.1  SE 29.2  NW 24.9

 

Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: American Horror Story, Hayden Panettiere, Thomas Hertl, St. Louis Cardinals, and Malala Yousafzai

 

News scores from U.S. news stories on: Lawyer says video key for NYPD undercover officer, Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw, US to partially cut aid to Egypt, Missing patient found, and Ex-officer firing at courthouse dies

Shutdown: More posturing, markets confused; Outlook 9 Oct '13

after market update: actual S&P +0.96 (+0.06%); Markets did pause today (as suggested in near term market outlook below).  There was more posturing and some movement in the shutdown drama, but with uncertain outcome at this point.   

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 9, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational.  Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line, but today markets are likely to be choppy and uncertain, making little progress in any direction. 

Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to  slightly down (0% to -0.2%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is barely positive.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggressiveness.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, protests, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.  The news chart (below) shows a good chance of some really bad news just ahead.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is nearing its next level of support.  Markets should be soon ready to test another level on the way down, but may first pause for a moment.  The social mood signal has not yet gone below 1650 S&P.  Will it hold here?

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.7 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is +0.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  Is there some really bad news ahead?   

 

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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of 0.6 S&P points (news signal) to -2.7 S&P points (social mood signal), or 0% to -0.2%.

 

MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 18.9  SW 34.7  SE 25.6  NW 20.9

MoodCompass News score input: NE 24.1  SW 23.0  SE 29.3  NW 23.6

 

Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Kris Jerner, MLB, new 100 dollar bill, Tom Hanks, Beyond Two Souls

 

News scores from U.S. news stories on: Shutdown Denies Death and Burial Benefits to Families of 4 Dead Soldiers, As debt-limit deadline nears, investors show growing concern about a US default, Obama to Pick Yellen as Leader of Fed, Officials Say, Detective arrested in NYC motorcycle-SUV melee, Democratic lawmakers among 200 arrested at immigration rally

Shutdown-- Trying not to Look Bad, Markets Still Down: Outlook 8 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -20.6 (-1.23%); Markets just went down today.  The president's speech on the government shut down didn't slow it down, and perhaps made it worse. 

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 8, and participants are concerned with damage control to image and political capital.  Social mood reflects both a desperate aggression and an unwillingness to appear weak or vulnerable.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line.  It may or may not get all the way there today.

Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down  (-0.1% to -0.5%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is slightly negative.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggression and a refusal to appear weak or vulnerable in any way.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are mania, uncertainty, protests, terrorist activity, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has clearly broken below support,  Markets should be close behind.  The social mood signal appears not to have gone below the 1630 support line of the S&P. 

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -8.2 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal has clearly broken below support. Markets should soon follow with a sharp break down.

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Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of -1.4 S&P points (news signal) to -8.2 S&P points (social mood signal), or -0.1% to -0.5%.

 

MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 17.3  SW 39.9  SE 22.5  NW 20.4

MoodCompass News score input: NE 23.2  SW 25.1  SE 31.4  NW 20.2

 

Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Raiders, Scarlett Johansson, Detroit Tigers, Red Sox, and President's Cup streaker

 

News scores from U.S. news stories on: Brown vetoes bill to allow non-citizens on juries, Senate Leaders Mull Raising Debt Ceiling in Challenge to House, Steubenville rape case: New arrest, jail without bond, Charges Expected in Wash. Soldier's Fatal Stabbing, and Fast-moving storms bring heavy rain, high winds to Northeast, delaying flights

Violent Moves, Markets Down: Outlook 7 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -14.3 (-0.85%); Markets started down almost 1%, climbed up to the top of our expected range (-0.3%), then dropped back down toward the lows.  The VIX, the so called "fear index," was even more reflective of the sharp deterioration in social mood over the weekend as it surged approximately 14% today. 

End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of aggressive and desperate-- White House, Senate Democrats step up pressure to raise federal debt ceiling

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 7.  Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and perceptions of chaos.  Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days.  This may or may not all occur today.  A mood trend change is in progress; this could signify that an end to the shutdown is only a few days away, or that hopes are at least about to rise.

Today's Market Outlook is Down to down sharply (-0.3% to -1.9%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply negative, and the signal from the news is moderately negative.  Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days.  This may or may not all occur today.  
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and desperation.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are the unexpected, chaos,  protests and terrorist activity.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has clearly broken below support. A sharp drop in the markets of up to 4% is expected in the next few days.  It may or may not all happen today. 

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -11.6 S&P points (-32.2 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal has clearly broken below support. Markets should soon follow with a sharp break down.

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Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points (-5.2 S&P points the entire weekend Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Today's expected stock market range is calculated from -5.2 S&P points (news signal for Saturday through Monday) to -32.2 S&P points (social mood signal for Saturday through Monday), or-0.3% to -1.9%.